Red Line 2: Nuclear Boogaloo
What does it mean to exist?
“In January, the head of a group of serving and retired Russian military officers declared that invading Ukraine would be ‘pointless and extremely dangerous.’ It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten ‘the existence of Russia itself as a state.’”
Following up on today’s Defcon Watch, if the Kremlin ultimately perceives the invasion itself as posing a threat to Russia’s existence, more so now that it’s already bogged down in a “bloody stalemate,” even without an all-out hot war with NATO, would that be enough to cross Putin’s invisible red line?
The only way to defuse the situation is to give the Kremlin an out that allows them to claim false victory while the rest of the world knows better. Permanent neutrality for Ukraine coupled with NATO security guarantees to prevent a future invasion (think “Article V Light”) . Russia pays damages and then some for the war, but keeps Crimea and Donbas (headaches for Kyiv anyway), though not the land-bridge bit between them. Then we all keep spying the hell out of each other.